Short-term Load Interval Prediction with Unilateral Adaptive Update
Strategy and Simplified Biased Convex Cost Function
Abstract
This paper proposes a unilateral Adaptive update strategy based Interval
Prediction (AIP) model for short-term load prediction, which is
developed based on lower and upper bound estimation (LUBE) architecture.
In traditional LUBE interval prediction model, the model training is
usually trained by heuristic algorithms. In this paper, the model
training is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem with the help
of proposed unilateral adaptive update strategy and cost function. In
lower-level problem, a simplified biased convex cost function is
developed to supervise the learning direction of basic prediction
engines. The basic prediction engine utilizes Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)
to extract features and Full Connected Neural Network (FNN) to generate
interval boundary. In upper-level problem, a unilateral adaptive update
strategy with unilateral coverage rate is put forward. It iteratively
tunes hyper-parameters of cost function during training process.
Comprehensive experiments based on residential load data are implemented
and the proposed interval prediction model outperforms the tested
state-of-the-art algorithms.