A study on the distribution pattern changes offorest musk deer in China
under climate change
Abstract
Habitat suitability assessment is crucial for the conservation of
endangered species in the context of dramatic global climate change. To
investigate changes in the distribution pattern of forest musk in China,
the present study used the optimized MaxEnt model of the ENMeval
language package to simulate changes in potential suitable areas and
potential suitable areas for four shared socio-economic pathways of the
endangered species, forest musk (Moschus berezovskii), in both the
current and the future periods, and the migration trends of the four
shared socioeconomic paths in the current and future periods are
analyzed. The results showed that: the MaxEnt model reached the optimal
solution when RM=3.4 and FC was LQH; the dominant environmental factors
for the distribution of Linnaeus musculus in China were annual
precipitation, slope, and cold-season average air temperature; the
current suitable habitat accounted for 23.02% of the total area of the
study area, which was mainly distributed around the Hengduan Mountain
Range, the area around the Longmenshan to Daliangshan Mountains, and the
Qinling Mountain System; Under the future climate change, the expansion
area of the suitable area is larger than the loss area, and the center
of mass of the suitable area has a tendency to migrate to the northeast,
in which the fluctuation area of the suitable area is smaller under the
SSP370 climate scenario. Critical habitat accounts for 20.04% of the
current potential suitable area, which is mainly distributed in the
mountain range at the junction of Yunnan-Tibet, the junction of the
Zhongshan vein and Sichuan Basin, and the Qinling mountain system. This
study suggests focusing on the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon and Tsatsum
Tsibagou in Tibet and the fragmented habitat of forest musk in Cangshan
Erhai, Yunnan, to improve the information construction and increase the
protection efforts.