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High-resolution climate change projections of atmospheric rivers over the South Pacific
  • Felix W. Goddard,
  • Peter B Gibson,
  • Neelesh Rampal
Felix W. Goddard
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
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Peter B Gibson
NIWA

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Neelesh Rampal
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
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Abstract

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a critical role in moisture transport across the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and often produce extreme rainfall events across New Zealand. Here we examine ARs in a new set of high-resolution (12km) dynamically downscaled simulations from select CMIP6 models. We begin with a historical evaluation of AR properties from this model ensemble followed by future projections. We demonstrate that by end-of-century, the maximum integrated vapour transport associated with ARs will robustly increase by as much as 20% in some regions of the South Pacific, and ARs contribute a larger proportion (up to 20% more) of the annual precipitation climatology in certain regions of New Zealand. The spatial structure and seasonality of these changes indicate the role of a poleward shift and intensification of the westerly jet. This is further quantified through a decomposition into dynamic and thermodynamic components. While the thermodynamic change dominates the increase in AR frequency, the additional positive dynamical change is notable over the mid-latitudes and southern New Zealand. Separating events using an AR categorisation scale shows that higher category (longer duration, more intense) events more than double in frequency, underscoring the increasing role that ARs will play in extreme weather events in the future in this region.
21 May 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
21 May 2024Published in ESS Open Archive