Abstract
Malaria is a disease that has a significant influence on public health
and affects individuals all over the Global South. Global warming
affects the disease’s distribution, and the Solar Geoengineering (SG) is
an interim solution to combat global warming, which involves scattering
back a tiny fraction of the incoming sunlight. This study explores the
projected spatio-temporal patterns of malaria distribution using
Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and Length of Transmission Season
(LTS) as quantitative indicators of malaria transmission under G6sulfur
scenario of SG in seven of the most climate vulnerable countries of
South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Nepal, and
Pakistan). Furthermore, for comparative analysis, future projections of
EIR and LTS are studied without SG under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway
scenario (SSP585). The result of a dynamical malaria model indicates
that, under the SG G6sulfur scenario, the spatial distribution patterns
of EIR depict an overall decrease in malaria distribution during the
period of 2020–2090, as compared to SSP585 scenario, over South Asia.
Moreover, LTS of disease will gradually be shortened during the same
time scale as in G6sulfur scenario. Regionally, spatial distribution of
malaria over Bangladesh, India and Pakistan is projected to experience a
significant decline. While Afghanistan, Iran, and Nepal show less
drastic but still a notable decrease in EIR.