Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S.
Electric Power System under Deep Climate Uncertainty
Abstract
Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems.
Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying
decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty.
We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the
robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60\%
emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power
system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource
adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate
ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant
availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five
initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant
resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but
certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy
failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By
identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives
the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a
new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under
any climate realizations. Our framework can help planners adapt to
climate change, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and
climate modelling.