Inference of regime-dependent Granger causal interactions between
climate teleconnections
Abstract
Regime dependencies and Granger causal relationships between tropical
and extratropical teleconnections are inferred using Bayesian structure
learning. Using ERA5 data, an examination of the differences between the
learned causal structures during particular phases of the Interdecadal
Pacific Oscillation (IPO) are used to infer the role of the background
state on interactions between the major climate teleconnections and in
particular the dependence of the ENSO autocorrelation on the phase of
the background state, and the role of the Madden Julian Oscillation as
being key to link the extratropical tropospheric modes (PNA, NAO) and
the equatorial surface ocean forced convective modes (IOD, ENSO). These
relationships are presented as posterior distributions over possible
graphical representations in terms of Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)
models constructed from time series of empirical climate indices.
General circulation model simulations are used to sample from a larger
distribution of possible IPO periods and their phase dependencies.