The Marshmallow Test as Screenings Instrument: Sensitivity and
Specificity of a Delay of Gratification Tasks as a Longitudinal
Predictor for ADHD and Conduct Problems
Abstract
Delay of gratification tasks seem to have an impressive predictive value
for several outcomes and are supposed to measure self-regulation. Since
many behavioural and psychological problems in children are related to
limitations in self-regulation, the extent to which delay tasks can be
used as a screening to detect psychopathology is examined. Children (N=
1498; 51% girls) participated in Delay tasks at the age of 3 and 5.
Parents rated ADHD and conduct problems at the children‘s age of 5 and
6, which we classified according to cut-offs. Delay at age 3 was related
to ADHD at age 5 (OR = 1.84) and conduct at age 6 (OR = 2.61). The
results showed high specificity (77-78%) and negative predictive values
(95-98%), correctly identifying children below the SDQ cut-off, but low
sensitivity (27-42%), deeming the task unsuitable as screening for
children at risk. These results were aggravated when considering only
the first 20 seconds.