Voltinism shifts in response to climate warming generally benefit
populations of multivoltine butterflies
Abstract
Climate change is implicated as one contributor to insect declines.
Insects may respond to warming by advancing phenology and increasing the
number of generations each year (voltinism). However, if earlier
phenology changes cue-response relationships, then late-season
generations might lack time to complete diapause development before
winter and result in doomed “lost generations”. Using 27 years of
monitoring of 30 multivoltine butterfly species, we find the opposite,
as larger late-season generations (voltinism shifts) are associated with
higher overwinter population growth rates. The potential threat of lost
generations is limited to late-season species at cooler sites in years
with early frosts. Overall, long-term population trends are positively
correlated with larger late-season generations, suggesting that they are
an adaptive response to climate warming. Still, overwinter population
growth rates and long-term population trends have declined over time as
the benefits of voltinism shifts have been insufficient to reverse
population declines.