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Voltinism shifts in response to climate warming generally benefit populations of multivoltine butterflies
  • Tyson Wepprich,
  • Erica Henry,
  • Nick Haddad
Tyson Wepprich
Oregon Department of Forestry

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Erica Henry
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
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Nick Haddad
Michigan State University
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Abstract

Climate change is implicated as one contributor to insect declines. Insects may respond to warming by advancing phenology and increasing the number of generations each year (voltinism). However, if earlier phenology changes cue-response relationships, then late-season generations might lack time to complete diapause development before winter and result in doomed “lost generations”. Using 27 years of monitoring of 30 multivoltine butterfly species, we find the opposite, as larger late-season generations (voltinism shifts) are associated with higher overwinter population growth rates. The potential threat of lost generations is limited to late-season species at cooler sites in years with early frosts. Overall, long-term population trends are positively correlated with larger late-season generations, suggesting that they are an adaptive response to climate warming. Still, overwinter population growth rates and long-term population trends have declined over time as the benefits of voltinism shifts have been insufficient to reverse population declines.
28 Aug 2024Submitted to Ecology Letters
04 Sep 2024Submission Checks Completed
04 Sep 2024Assigned to Editor
04 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
06 Sep 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
30 Sep 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
11 Oct 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
11 Oct 20241st Revision Received
14 Oct 2024Submission Checks Completed
14 Oct 2024Assigned to Editor
14 Oct 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
18 Oct 2024Editorial Decision: Accept