Exploring uncertainty of trends in the lower-tropospheric North Pacific
Jet position
Abstract
It has been difficult to establish trends in the observed jet streams,
despite modelling studies suggesting they will move polewards in a
warming world. While this is partly due to biases between the models and
observations, we propose that another uncertainty is rooted in the
choice of statistic used to determine the ‘jet latitude’ — one measure
used to quantify the jet position. We use seven different jet latitude
statistics, four climate reanalysis products, and CMIP6 simulations to
assess the relative importance of different uncertainties associated
with North Pacific Jet (NPJ) trends. Our results show a statistically
significant poleward trend in the observed winter NPJ across all
reanalyses and using all jet latitude statistics. The magnitude of this
trend is most sensitive to the choice of statistic. Furthermore, we find
that the NPJ shifts poleward in Autumn under high emission scenarios,
which is robust to the choice of jet statistic.