Response of the global ITCZ to different ENSO phases and how the ITCZ
determined from the maximum precipitation compares with the surface
tropical winds convergence
Abstract
The position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) may lead to
drying/flooding in some parts of the world. Its spatial and temporal
variation responds to well-established oscillation processes like the
El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research establishes the
response of the ITCZ position to the ENSO phases and how its position,
determined from maximum precipitation, relates to the convergence of
surface tropical winds. The ERA5 reanalysis data, 1990 – 2020, is used
in this study. Each longitude is scanned for latitude of maximum
precipitation, during each El-Niño/La-Niña/Neutral years, within the
20°N/S latitude range to identify the ITCZ position. The study concludes
that the position established by the maximum precipitation aligns with
the surface tropical winds convergence over the global oceanic areas. On
seasonal average, the La-Niña related ITCZ position is consistently
southward of its El-Niño position over Africa and Central Pacific Ocean.
The study uncovered that the extreme cases of El-Niño/La-Niña leads to
further north/south shifting of the ITCZ position from its normal
El-Niño/La-Niña positions. The continental and Atlantic Ocean ITCZ is
more persistent and shows a minimal fluctuation during the
El-Niño/La-Niña. Over Africa, cross-wavelet analysis shows common
high-power features in the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and ITCZ signals
over a four-year periodicity, mirroring the ENSO periodicity albeit with
slowly varying time lag across the years. The cross-correlation of the
two signals is strongest in Austral summer (DJF). The global and
temporal ITCZ shifts open an opportunity for improved interpretation of
seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic events, especially under climate
change conditions