Dynamic Earth System response to interacting climate forcing factors
through the Penultimate Deglaciation and Last Interglacial
Abstract
The Penultimate Deglaciation (PDG) saw warming from the Penultimate
Glacial Maximum to the Last Interglacial (LIG). We present 18-kyr
transient simulations through the PDG into the LIG using a fully-coupled
three-dimensional ocean-atmosphere model forced with PMIP4 transient
boundary conditions. We perform sensitivity experiments to disentangle
the roles of the multiple drivers. We also perform steady-state
simulations with matched boundary conditions to explore Earth-system
memory. We focus on time series of global temperature, Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength and Asian monsoon
precipitation. We demonstrate a tight coupling of these Earth-system
components, with meltwater-driven AMOC variability driving the timing of
changes in global temperature and Asian monsoon strength. The magnitude
of glacial-interglacial warming is dominated by CO2 and ice sheets, but
the timing is highly sensitive to orbital forcing and meltwater fluxes.
Transient and steady-state global temperatures can differ by up to 2.0
°C during the deglaciation. Relative to steady state, transient
simulations find delayed multi-millennial global warming, a marginally
cooler early LIG, and differences in AMOC hysteresis. The 127 ka
timeslice is more sensitive to disequilibrium effects compared to later
stages of the LIG. The occurrence of an interstadial in the early PDG
depends on the profile of meltwater forcing. The timing of final AMOC
recovery is accelerated by ice-sheet retreat and orbital forcing. Indian
monsoon strengthening is primarily driven by orbital forcing and CO2,
but the timing is linked to AMOC recovery. Indian Monsoon variability is
qualitatively most closely simulated using the meltwater forcing profile
derived from ice-rafted debris.