The Mediterranean Hellenic Arc subduction zone (HASZ) has generated several Mw>=8 earthquakes and tsunamis. Seismic-probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment typically utilizes uniform or stochastic earthquake models, which may not represent dynamic rupture and tsunami generation complexity. We present an ensemble of ten 3D dynamic rupture earthquake scenarios for the HASZ, utilizing a realistic slab geometry. Our simplest models use uniform along-arc pre-stresses or a single circular initial stress asperity. We then introduce progressively more complex models varying initial shear stress along-arc, multiple asperities based on scale-dependent critical slip weakening distance, and a most complex model blending all aforementioned heterogeneities. Thereby, regional initial conditions are constrained without relying on detailed geodetic locking models. Varying hypocenter locations in the simplest, homogeneous model leads to different rupture speeds and moment magnitudes. We observe dynamic fault slip penetrating the shallow slip-strengthening region and affecting seafloor uplift. Off-fault plastic deformation can double vertical seafloor uplift. A single-asperity model generates a Mw~8 scenario resembling the 1303 Crete earthquake. Using along-strike varying initial stresses results in Mw~8.0-8.5 dynamic rupture scenarios with diverse slip rates and uplift patterns. The model with the most heterogeneous initial conditions yields a Mw~7.5 scenario. Dynamic rupture complexity in prestress and fracture energy tends to lower earthquake magnitude but enhances tsunamigenic displacements. Our results offer insights into the dynamics of potential large Hellenic Arc megathrust earthquakes and may inform future physics-based joint seismic and tsunami hazard assessments.

Numerical simulations of Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) have rapidly progressed to address fundamental problems in fault mechanics and provide self-consistent, physics-based frameworks to interpret and predict geophysical observations across spatial and temporal scales. To advance SEAS simulations with rigor and reproducibility, we pursue community efforts to verify numerical codes in an expanding suite of benchmarks. Here we present code comparison results from a new set of benchmark problems BP6-QD-A/S/C that consider a single aseismic slip transient induced by changes in pore fluid pressure consistent with fluid injection and diffusion in fault models with different treatments of fault friction. Ten modeling groups participated in problems BP6-QD-A and BP6-QD-S considering rate-and-state fault models using the aging and slip law formulations for frictional state evolution, respectively, allowing us to explore these ingredients across multiple codes and better understand how various computational factors affect the simulated evolution of pore pressure and aseismic slip. Comparisons of problems using the aging versus slip law illustrate how models of aseismic slip can differ in the timing and amount of slip achieved with different treatments of fault friction given the same perturbations in pore fluid pressure. We achieve excellent quantitative agreement across participating codes, with further agreement being found by ensuring sufficiently fine time-stepping and consistent treatment of remote boundary conditions. Our benchmark efforts offer a community-based example to reveal sensitivities of numerical modeling results, which is essential for advancing multi-physics SEAS models to better understand and construct reliable predictive models of fault dynamics.

Tsunami wave observations far from the coast remain challenging due to the logistics and cost of deploying and operating offshore instrumentation on a long-term basis with sufficient spatial coverage and density. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) on submarine fiber optic cables now enables real-time seafloor strain observations over distances exceeding 100 km at a relatively low cost. Here, we evaluate the potential contribution of DAS to tsunami warning by assessing theoretically the sensitivity required by a DAS instrument to record tsunami waves. Our analysis includes signals due to two effects induced by the hydrostatic pressure perturbations arising from tsunami waves: the Poisson’s effect of the submarine cable and the compliance effect of the seafloor. It also includes the effect of seafloor shear stresses and temperature transients induced by the horizontal fluid flow associated with tsunami waves. The analysis is supported by fully coupled 3-D physics-based simulations of earthquake rupture, seismo-acoustic waves and tsunami wave propagation. The strains from seismo-acoustic waves and static deformation near the earthquake source are orders of magnitude larger than the tsunami strain signal. We illustrate a data processing procedure to discern the tsunami signal. With enhanced low-frequency sensitivity on DAS interrogators (strain sensitivity ≈ 2×10−10 at mHz frequencies), we find that, on seafloor cables located above or near the earthquake source area, tsunamis are expected to be observable with a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio within a few minutes of the earthquake onset. These encouraging results pave the way towards faster tsunami warning enabled by seafloor DAS.

Understanding the dynamics of microearthquakes is a timely challenge with the potential to address current paradoxes in earthquake mechanics, and to better understand earthquake ruptures induced by fluid injection. We perform fully 3D dynamic rupture simulations caused by fluid injection on a target fault for FEAR experiments generating Mw ≤ 1 earthquakes. We investigate the dynamics of rupture propagation with spatially variable stress drop caused by pore pressure changes and assuming different constitutive parameters. We show that the spontaneous arrest of propagating ruptures is possible by assuming a high fault strength parameter S, that is, a high ratio between strength excess and dynamic stress drop. In faults with high S values (low rupturing potential), even minor variations in Dc (from 0.45 to 0.6 mm) have a substantial effect on the rupture propagation and the ultimate earthquake size. Our results show that modest spatial variations of dynamic stress drop determine the rupture mode, distinguishing self-arresting from run-away ruptures. Our results suggest that several characteristics inferred for accelerating dynamic ruptures differ from those observed during rupture deceleration of a self-arresting earthquake. During deceleration, a decrease of peak slip velocity is associated with a nearly constant cohesive zone size. Moreover, the residual slip velocity value (asymptotic value for a crack-like rupture) decreases to nearly zero. This means that an initially crack-like rupture becomes a pulse-like rupture during spontaneous arrest. In summary, our findings highlight the complex dynamics of small earthquakes, which are partially contrasting with established crack-like models of earthquake rupture.

Large earthquakes rupture faults over hundreds of kilometers within minutes. Finite-fault models image these processes and provide observational constraints for understanding earthquake physics. However, finite-fault inversions are subject to non-uniqueness and uncertainties. The diverse range of published models for the well-recorded 2011 $M_w$~9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake illustrates this issue, and details of its rupture process remain under debate. Here, we comprehensively compare 32 finite-fault models of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake and analyze the sensitivity of four commonly-used observational data types (geodetic, teleseismic, regional seismic-geodetic, and tsunami) to their slip features. We first project all models to a realistic megathrust geometry and a 1-km subfault size. At this scale, we observe low correlation among the models, irrespective of the data type. However, model agreement improves significantly with increasing subfault sizes, implying that their differences primarily stem from small-scale features. We then forward-compute geodetic and seismic synthetics and compare them with observations available during the earthquake. We find that seismic observations are sensitive to rupture propagation, such as the peak-slip rise time. However, neither teleseismic, regional seismic, nor geodetic observations are sensitive to spatial slip features smaller than 64~km. In distinction, the seafloor deformation predicted by all models exhibits poor correlation, indicating sensitivity to small-scale slip features. Our findings suggest that fine-scale slip features cannot be unambiguously resolved by remote or sparse observations, such as the four data types tested in this study. However, better resolution may become achievable from dense offshore instrumentation.