The Effect of Pseudo-Global Warming on the Weather-Climate System of
Africa in a Convection-Permitting Model
Abstract
The weather-climate system of Africa encompassing the African easterly
jet (AEJ) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) can largely modulate
high-impact weather over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. How the
weather-climate system of Africa will change with a warming climate is
just starting to be addressed due to global climate model limitations in
resolving convection. We employ a novel atmospheric
convection-permitting model regional setup alongside the pseudo-global
warming (PGW) approach to address climate change impacts on the
weather-climate system of Africa. Our findings indicate that the AEJ and
areas of monsoon flow intensify in a future warming climate scenario
together with an increase in monsoonal moisture. Moreover, precipitation
will increase over high topography and shift southward due to a
latitudinal expansion and increase of deep convection closer to the
equator. This has relevant ramifications for the livelihood of
communities that depend on water-fed crops in tropical Africa.