Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over North-East Africa
and Arabia: Part 1 - historical simulations
Abstract
This study proposes a methodology for selecting global climate models
(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) on
the basis of their ability to simulate characteristics of mean and
extreme precipitation over North-East Africa and Arabia. The seasonal
climatology, annual rainfall cycles, and spatial and temporal
variability (as documented by five ETCCDI indices) of twenty-five GCMs
have been assessed against rain gauge observations and seven gridded
rainfall products. Most of the GCMs simulate reasonably well the
climatology of mean rainfall (annual and seasonal totals and number of
rainy days). Large discrepancies are found in the reference products for
some indices related to rainfall intensity (SDII, P95 and R95ptot),
which is a major concern for the validation of GCMs. For these indices,
we evaluate whether historical CMIP6 simulations fall within the
uncertainty range of the rainfall estimates. Ten CMIP6 models are
finally retained based on their ability to reproduce the geography and
seasonality of mean and extreme rainfall. They tend to have a higher
spatial resolution, although there is no systematic relationship between
resolution and skill. The selected CMIP6 models perform better, not only
at the regional scale (by construction), but also, and more
meaningfully, at the local scale of the Republic of Djibouti
particularly for the March-to-May rainy season. In a companion paper,
the projections of the selected CMIP6 models will be used to study
future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over North-East Africa
and Arabia.