Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns
and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef
Abstract
Local meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly
influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems.
While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the
expected synoptic states, it lacks details of the anticipated
sub-seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores
the influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian
tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, with
a focus on impacts to the GBR. We find that during El Niño periods, a
faster propagating MJO pattern can disrupt background warm, dry
conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud
cover and stronger winds. Conversely, in La Niña periods, the MJO is
prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a
standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to reduced atmospheric
convection over the GBR, decreased cloud cover and wind, and the
generation of a warm ocean anomaly.