Assessment of water scarcity under climate and socio-economic change
scenarios in a transboundary river basin: A case study in the 3S basin
of Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia
Abstract
Water scarcity has become one of the major issues to environmentalist,
researchers and mostly to society and its people. The rapid increasing
population, socio-economic development and climate change has
exacerbated the water scarcity situation. The uncertainty in the future
societal and climate conditions will increase the scarcity risk.
Therefore, this study aims to explore the water scarcity responses to
future socio-economic development called Share Socio-economics Pathways
(SSPs) and climate change named Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) for the three period of 2030s, 2060s and 2090s in the
transboundary 3S (Sekong, Sesan and Srepok) Basin. The three SSPs i.e.,
SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 and two RCPs i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were selected
for projection of future water scarcity risk. In which, the SSP1 was
combined with RCP4.5 and two remain SSPs are compatible with RCP8.5. The
results show that the basin experienced stress condition and it will
increase till 2090s under SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. The basin would
expose to the worse situation of scarcity in the dry years. Furthermore,
the projected spatial water scarcity distribution map reveals that the
extreme scarcity mainly occurred in the upstream of Sesan and Sre Pok
sub-basin located in Vietnam. Among the three water stress mitigation
options, water transportation is the effective option for reducing the
medium and severe scarcity status. The results of this study will
contribute the enlighten the water scarcity situation and will be assets
to policy makers and stakeholders for effective decision making in
development of water resource management of complex transboundary river
basin.