On the relation between seismic source dynamics, tsunami generation and
propagation, and numerical modelling complexity for large earthquakes in
subduction zones
Abstract
Tsunamis are rare, destructive events, whose generation, propagation and
coastal impact processes involve several complex physical phenomena.
Most tsunami applications, like probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment,
make extensive use of large sets of numerical simulations, facing a
systematic trade-off between the computational costs and the modelling
accuracy. For seismogenic tsunami, the source is often modelled as an
instantaneous sea-floor displacement due to the fault static slip
distribution, while the propagation in open-sea is computed through a
shallow water approximation.
Here, through 1D earthquake-tsunami coupled simulations of large
M>8 earthquakes in Tohoku-like subduction zone, we tested
for which conditions the instantaneous source (IS) and/or the shallow
water (SW) approximations can be used to simulate with enough accuracy
the whole tsunami evolution. We used as a reference a time-dependent
(TD), multi-layer, non-hydrostatic (NH) model whose source features,
duration, and size, are based on seismic rupture dynamic simulations
with realistic stress drop and rigidity, within a Tohoku-like
environment.
We showed that slow ruptures, generating slip in shallow part of
subduction slabs (e.g. tsunami earthquakes), and very large events, with
an along-dip extension comparable with the trench-coast distance (e.g.
mega-thrust) require a TD-NH modelling, in particular when the
bathymetry close to the coast features sharp depth gradients.
Conversely, deeper, higher stress-drop events can be accurately modelled
through an IS-SW approximation. We finally showed to what extent
inundation depend on bathymetric geometrical features: (i) steeper
bathymetries generate larger inundations and (ii) a resonant mechanism
emerges with run-up amplifications associated with larger source size on
flatter bathymetries.