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\begin{document}

\title{Analysis of trends~ and drivers: Identifying water conservation
opportunities in the Eskandari~ Watershed, Iran~~~~~~~~~~}



\author[1]{Atefeh Adeli}%
\author[2]{Hassan Torabi}%
\affil[1]{Ph.D. In Hydraulic Structures, Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz (SCU), Iran.}%
\affil[2]{Professor of Hydraulic Structures, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 16, 2024}


\begingroup
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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Water scarcity is a significant issue in Iran, especially on its central
plateau. Although climate change contributes to this problem,
mismanagement and over-exploitation of available water resources
worsened the situation. This study investigated water conservation
opportunities in the Eskandari watershed, a crucial agricultural region
in the Zayandeh-Rud River basin. We examined the trend of changes in all
the factors affecting water resources in this watershed, including
precipitation, discharge, leaf area index (LAI), inter-basin water
transfer, and groundwaters from 2004 to 2019 at an annual scale. The
classic Mann-Kendall (MK) and the non-parametric Trend-Free
pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) statistical tests were employed to
analyze the changing trends of these parameters over time. The results
indicated that precipitation, discharge, and cultivated area have not
shown any significant trend over 16 years. While in this period, the
inter-basin water transfer tunnel entered into the basin with an upward
trend, the water volume of all three aquifers experienced a drastic
negative trend, suggesting an imbalance between the inflow and outflow
of the watershed. Based on the groundwater depletion and the inter-basin
water transfer inflow, an estimated 336.14 million cubic meters of water
were consumed over the study period. This loss aligned with estimated
water wastage in the form of wind drift and evaporation losses (WDEL)
caused by the development of sprinkler irrigation systems in the study
area. To address water scarcity and conserve water resources in the
Eskandari watershed, it is essential to adopt sustainable irrigation
practices that consider reducing the pressure on aquifers.{}%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


\section*{Introduction}

{\label{874460}}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/LAI1/LAI1}
\caption{{This is a caption
{\label{309108}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

The Leaf area index trend analysis results presented in Table
{\ref{974045}}, showed that the overall vegetation
cover and the cultivated area neither expanded nor reduced in the
Eskandari watershed over the period. Although there is a slight negative
trend, it was not significant statistically; because the statistics of Z
with the value of -0.78 and -0.85 and p with the value of 56.75 and
60.74, in the MK and TFPW-MK tests respectively confirmed that the
negative trend was not significant. We also used GEE to extract
vegetation cover images. The study period was divided into 4-year
intervals, and the LAI index on the first day of January in the years
2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 is shown in Figure
{\ref{127987}}. The results indicated that,~ despite
some fluctuation, the overall vegetation cover remained stable, and this
was consistent with the findings of the trend analysis.

\subsection*{3.4 Interbasin water
transfer}

{\label{877650}}

The annual discharge of the Cheshmeh-Langan inter-basin water transfer
tunnel with data collected from the Vahdat Abad meteorological station
(Longitude 50-10-21 and latitude 32-55-42), which was constructed, for
monitoring tunnel-related data from 2005 (start of operation) to 2019.
The collected data are shown in Figure {\ref{311924}}.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/cheshmehdis2/cheshmehdis2}
\caption{{The annual discharge of the Cheshmeh-Langan tunnel from 2005 to 2019 ~
{\label{311924}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

The changes in the time series of annual discharge of the tunnel, using
MK and TFPW-MK tests, were presented in Table
{\ref{974045}}. The result indicated an upward trend in
tunnel discharge with a slope of 0.2477. This trend was statistically
significant at the 10\% level in the (z=1.755, p=92.07) MK test, and the
outcomes of the TFPW-MK Test with a z-statistic of 1.38 and a p-value of
83.39 confirmed there is a statistically significant upward trend in the
discharge of the inter-basin water transfer tunnel to the Eskandari
watershed over the study period.

\subsection*{3.5 Groundwater}

{\label{238841}}

In this study, in addition to surface water, we also analyzed the
groundwater component because understanding the trends in groundwater is
crucial for the effective planning and management of water resource
projects. As displayed in Figure {\ref{591341}} there
were three aquifers located in the Eskandari watershed: Buin Miandasht,
Damaneh-Daran, and Chehel Khaneh.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/Figure-8/Figure-8}
\caption{{The position of aquifers towards the Eskandari watershed ~
{\label{591341}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

Table {\ref{255622}} presents data on the areal extent,
perimeter, number of piezometers, and average storage coefficient for
each confined aquifer.~\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{table}[H]
\centering
\normalsize\begin{tabulary}{1.0\textwidth}{CCCCC}
 & Areal extent (km\textsuperscript{\textbf{2}}\textbf{)}
 & Perimeter
(km) & Number of
piezometers & Storage
coefficient  \\
Buin Miandasht & 478.83 & 285.67 & 35 & 0.01 \\
Damaneh-Daran & 220.31 & 158.27 & 18 & 0.05 \\
Chehel Khaneh & 45.38 & 46.54 & 7 & 0.01 \\
\end{tabulary}
\caption{{Aquifers specifications ~
{\label{255622}}%
}}
\end{table}We conducted an evaluation focused on the cumulative average storage
volume in aquifers over time (2004-2019), and the results presented in
Figure {\ref{560615}}. As it was evident that all three
aquifers experienced a negative trend in aquifer storage during the
reviewed period, the trend analysis results of both the MK and TFPW-MK
tests also confirmed this (Table {\ref{974045}}). All
three aquifers exhibit a statistically significant downward trend in
aquifer water volume at the 95\% confidence level, suggesting that the
overall water storage in these aquifers was decreasing over time. The
magnitude of the downward trend in aquifer storage, with a total of
around 450 million cubic meters, was most significant in the
Damaneh-Daran aquifer, which covers an area of roughly half of Buin
Miandasht, suggests that this aquifer experienced the most severe
depletion of groundwater resources. Meanwhile, the Buin Miandasht and
Chehel Khaneh aquifers had fluctuations in aquifer storage ranging from
8.7 to -30.2 and -0.6 to -2.85 million cubic meters, respectively.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/aquifer/aquifer}
\caption{{The cumulative average annual aquifer storage volume (MCM) from 2004 to
2019
{\label{560615}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\section*{4 Discussion}

{\label{740968}}

Trend analysis results of all the relevant factors in the water resource
management of the watershed over time (Figure
{\ref{574713}} and Table
{\ref{974045}}) indicated that precipitation,
discharge, and cultivated area have not displayed any significant
trends. These factors were trend-free, while the inter-basin water
transfer tunnel showed a positive trend and the aquifer storage volume
experienced a drastic negative trend. Therefore, there is an imbalance
between the inflow and outflow. Otherwise, there was either an upward or
downward trend in the discharge of the Eskandari station (watershed
outlet). The imbalance suggested a water loss during the period. So, we
first determined the extent of water loss in the watershed, and then
investigated the plausible factors contributing to this water loss.~\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/scheme/scheme}
\caption{{The trend of changes over time ~
{\label{574713}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{table}[H]
\centering
\normalsize\begin{tabulary}{1.0\textwidth}{CCCCCCCC}
 &  &  & Slope & Z & P & Z\_TFPW & P\_TFPW \\
 & precipitation &  & 0.33 & 0 & 0 & 0.49 & 37.94 \\
 & Discharge &  & 0.08 & 0.49 & 37.94 & 0.29 & 23.2 \\
 & LAI &  & -0.0 & -0.78 & 56.75 & -0.85 & 60.74 \\
 & Cheshmeh-Langan tunnel &  & 0.24 & 1.75 & 92.07 & 1.38 & 83.39 \\
Aquifer & Buin Miandasht &  & -1.75 & -2.83 & 99.54 & -3.06 & 99.78 \\
 & Chehel Khaneh &  & -0.13 & -2.29 & 97.83 & -2.57 & 99 \\
 & Damaneh-Daran &  & -23.5 & -4.72 & 99.89 & -4.94 & 99.89 \\
\end{tabulary}
\caption{{Slope, Z and P statistics, trend-free pre-whitened Z and P statistics ~
{\label{974045}}%
}}
\end{table}\subsection*{4.1 Lost water}

{\label{549625}}

To determine the extent of water loss in the watershed, we first
calculated the exact amount of this loss by analyzing the factors that
displayed trend, inter-basin water transfer tunnel, and aquifer storage
volume. The annual excess water volume of the Cheshmeh-Langan tunnel was
determined by removing the trend from the tunnel's discharge data. The
tunnel's discharge and trend-free data and Annual excess water volume
(MCM) are shown in Figure {\ref{407510}} and Table
{\ref{974045}}, respectively.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/trendfree3blueand-red/trendfree3blueand-red}
\caption{{The discharge of the Cheshme Langan tunnel and trend-free data~
{\label{407510}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

On the other hand, the extent of the negative trend in aquifer storage
volume within the three aquifers upstream of the Eskandari station from
2005 to 2019 was evaluated and demonstrated in Table
{\ref{642548}}. A total of 430.69 million cubic meters
water depleted in the three aquifers in 2019. We then calculated the
reduction in aquifer storage for each subsequent year relative to the
initial value in 2004 (-160.58), resulting in a cumulative depletion of
270 million cubic meters of water from the underground water table
between 2004 and 2019.~ Surprisingly, this over-extraction from the
aquifers, which has placed significant pressure on the groundwater
resources occurred despite implementing the Cheshmeh-Langan inter-basin
water tunnel in 2005, which was expected to replenish the underground
water table in the region. To assess the total water volume drifted out
from the watershed, the combined effects of the cumulative depletion of
aquifer storage and the excess water volume of the Cheshmeh-Langan
tunnel were considered on an annual basis (Table
{\ref{642548}}). The findings revealed a total decrease
of 336.14 million cubic meters over 16 years.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{table}[H]
\centering
\normalsize\begin{tabulary}{1.0\textwidth}{CCCCCCCC}
 & Reduction in aquifer storage volume  &  &  &  &  & Cheshme Langan
tunnel &  \\
Year & Damaneh
-Daran & Buin
Miandasht & Chehel
Khaneh & Overall 
reduction & Cumulative depletion & Annual excess
water volume 
 & Total decrease \\
2004 & -158.7 & -1.07 & -0.79 & -160.58 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\
2005 & -148 & -0.5 & -0.93 & -149.37 & 11.21 & 0 & 11.21 \\
2006 & -110.3 & 6.97 & -0.61 & -103.97 & 56.61 & 8.8 & 47.81 \\
2007 & -112.1 & 4.34 & -0.96 & -108.71 & 51.88 & 13.21 & 38.67 \\
2008 & -169.7 & -3.69 & -1.41 & -174.83 & -14.25 & 17.61 & -31.86 \\
2009 & -192.7 & -6.32 & -1.71 & -200.75 & -40.16 & 22.01 & -62.18 \\
2010 & -220.6 & -17.29 & -2.59 & -240.43 & -79.85 & 26.41 & -106.26 \\
2011 & -293.9 & -16.93 & -2.77 & -313.62 & -153.03 & 30.82 & -183.85 \\
2012 & -331.2 & -14.24 & -2.72 & -348.17 & -187.58 & 35.22 & -222.8 \\
2013 & -359 & -15.11 & -2.85 & -377 & -216.42 & 39.62 & -256.04 \\
2014 & -364.9 & -14.5 & -2.69 & -382.06 & -221.48 & 44.02 & -265.51 \\
2015 & -391.4 & -13.4 & -2.43 & -407.21 & -246.62 & 48.43 & -295.05 \\
2016 & -401.8 & -16.1 & -2.56 & -420.49 & -259.91 & 52.83 & -312.74 \\
2017 & -417.7 & -15.78 & -2.54 & -436.03 & -275.45 & 57.23 & -332.68 \\
2018 & -439.8 & -24.03 & -2.77 & -466.55 & -305.97 & 61.63 & -367.6 \\
2019 & -414.1 & -15.13 & -1.44 & -430.69 & -270.1 & 66.04 & -336.14 \\
\end{tabulary}
\caption{{Overall~ water volume drifted out from the watershed (MCM)
{\label{642548}}%
}}
\end{table}Three main areas could account for the consumption of this amount of
water, namely domestic, industry, and agriculture. Concerning domestic
water consumption, according to the Statistical Centre of
\hyperref[csl:1]{(SCI, 2019)} the total population in 2019 was 144,505 individuals,
with 67,042 residing in urban areas and 77,463 residing in rural areas.
The per capita consumption of potable water for domestic use in Iran is
reported to be around 157 L per day \hyperref[csl:2]{(``{Residential end uses of water, version 2 (Executive report). Denver, CO: Water Research Foundation}'', 2016)}. Consequently,
the consumption of drinking water in 2019 was approximately 8 million
cubic meters. Assuming that the population has doubled during this
period of 16 years, domestic consumption has only increased by 4 million
cubic meters. In addition, the use of absorption wastewater wells in
rural areas and treated surface wastewater in urban areas, return a very
high percentage of this volume of water to the basin. Therefore, water
loss in this sector was a small portion of the overall water volume that
has drifted out. Given that the Eskandari watershed is primarily an
agricultural area rather than an industrial one, the growth of the
industrial sector does not significantly impact water consumption in the
region. Consequently, drifted-out water volume water cannot be
attributed to population growth and industrial development, leaving the
agriculture sector as the sole plausible explanation.

\subsection*{\texorpdfstring{4.2
Agriculture{}}{4.2 Agriculture}}

{\label{164981}}

The agriculture sector was responsible for significant water loss over
16 years. Factors such as poor irrigation systems, evaporation, and
overall inadequate water management could be the reasons for this waste
of water resources. Table {\ref{743307}} summarizes the
lands under different irrigation systems in hectares, including
sprinkler, drip, and pressurized, in 2019, in two agricultural areas in
the Eskandari watershed ~\hyperref[csl:3]{(of Iran, 2019)}.~ More than 86\% of
cultivated lands\textbf{~}were under sprinkler irrigation, 23100
hectares. For this reason, we investigated the potential decrease in
irrigation efficiency in the region, primarily caused by the adoption of
sprinkler irrigation. This type of irrigation method increases water
loss through evaporation and wind drift (WDEL)~\hyperref[csl:4]{(Playán et al., 2005)},
resulting in the depletion of valuable water resources from the
watershed. In many situations, Wind Drift and Evaporation Losses (WDEL,
\%) can be larger than the other types of water losses, such as runoff
and deep percolation \hyperref[csl:5]{(Dylla \& Shull, 1983)}. As a result, we evaluated and
estimated wind drift and evaporation losses in sprinkler irrigation and
compared them with the calculated volume of lost water (336.14 MCM).\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{table}[H]
\centering
\normalsize\begin{tabulary}{1.0\textwidth}{CCCCC}
City & Sprinkler & Drip & Pressurized & Total \\
Fereydan- Damaneh & 16000 & 1000 & 150 & 17150 \\
Fereydun Shahr & 7100 & 400 & 2000 & 9500 \\
Total & 23100 & 1400 & 2150 & 26650 \\
\end{tabulary}
\caption{{Lands under different irrigation methods (ha) in 2019~
{\label{743307}}%
}}
\end{table}Due to the lack of precise data~ regarding the annual expansion of
cultivated lands under the sprinkler irrigation, water requirements for
cultivated crops, and WDEL in the region, certain assumptions were made:

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Firstly, it assumed that the development of the sprinkle irrigation
  system began in 1989 with a linear distribution, which was not
  unrealistic and was consistent with the annual development of this
  type of irrigation in the region. Based on this assumption, the
  estimated expansion of the sprinkler irrigation system from 2004 to
  2019 was approximately 11,550 hectares, as shown in Figure
  {\ref{560687}}.~
\end{itemize}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/irrigation-expansion/irrigation-expansion}
\caption{{sprinkler irrigation system expansion in the region ~
{\label{560687}}%
}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Secondly, cultivated crops in the region include alfalfa, potatoes,
  onions, and beans, with water requirements ranging from 7,000 to
  15,000, 3,500 to 7,000, 3,000 to 5,500, and 2,500 to 5,000 cubic
  meters per hectare per year, respectively. Therefore, water
  requirements in this region were assumed to be the equivalent of 6062
  cubic meters per hectare on average.
\end{itemize}

\begin{itemize}
\tightlist
\item
  Lastly, WDEL depends on various factors, such as relative humidity,
  air temperature, wind speed, pressure head at the nozzle, drop
  diameter, and riser height \hyperref[csl:6]{(Tarjuelo et al., 2000)}. On the other hand,
  night watering is not common in the region, and most irrigation takes
  place during daylight hours. Therefore, based on the findings of
  previous studies~\hyperref[csl:7]{(Sarwar et al., 2019}; \hyperref[csl:8]{Sheikhesmaeili, 2008)}, the amount of wind drift and
  evaporation lost in the study area was considered to be equal to 20\%.
\end{itemize}

Based on the assumptions mentioned above, the sprinkler irrigation
systems development in the study area has led to estimated annual wind
drift and evaporation losses. According to Table
{\ref{403523}}, 336.1 million cubic meters of water, in
16 years upstream of the Eskandari station evaporated and left the
watershed due to wind drift and evaporation losses. This estimation was
consistent with the overall decrease in flow volume within the study
area, as indicated by the decrease in aquifer storage and the positive
trend observed in the Cheshmeh-Langan tunnel, as shown in Table
{\ref{642548}}\textbf{.}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{table}[H]
\centering
\normalsize\begin{tabulary}{1.0\textwidth}{CCC}
Year & Cultivated Area (ha) & Annual WDEL \textbf{(MCM)}
 \\
2004 & 11550 & 14 \\
2005 & 12320 & 14.94 \\
2006 & 13090 & 15.87 \\
2007 & 13860 & 16.81 \\
2008 & 14630 & 17.74 \\
2009 & 15400 & 18.67 \\
2010 & 16170 & 19.61 \\
2011 & 16940 & 20.54 \\
2012 & 17710 & 21.47 \\
2013 & 18480 & 22.41 \\
2014 & 19250 & 23.34 \\
2015 & 20020 & 24.27 \\
2016 & 20790 & 25.21 \\
2017 & 21560 & 26.14 \\
2018 & 22330 & 27.08 \\
2019 & 23100 & 28.01 \\
 &  & Total = 336.1 \\
\end{tabulary}
\caption{{Estimated annual wind drift and evaporation losses ~
{\label{403523}}%
}}
\end{table}\section*{5 Conclusions}

{\label{202643}}

A comprehensive assessment of all input and output parameters affecting
water resources in the watershed revealed an inconsistency between them.
The analysis indicated that a total of 336.14 million cubic meters of
water was consumed over 16 years, and it was evident that population
growth and development in industry did not contribute to this
significant consumption. Thereby the only plausible explanation for this
high level of water usage was the agriculture sector. After making
certain assumptions, we estimated that the development of sprinkler
irrigation systems in the study area has caused a significant water
withdrawal and wastage of resources in the form of wind drift and
evaporation losses upstream of Eskandari station. This estimation was
consistent with the total decrease in flow volume based on aquifer
storage decrease, up to Eskandari station and the positive trend of the
Cheshmeh-Langan tunnel.{}

The sprinkler irrigation system's excessive development in recent
decades has caused a severe strain on the region's water resources.
While measures to tackle these issues, such as reducing water
consumption, purifying and reusing wastewater, and using any available
water, seem straightforward, the most effective solution in this region
upstream of the Zayandeh-Rud River lies in gradually replacing the
sprinkler irrigation system with greenhouses. The construction of
greenhouses effectively eliminates wind drifts and evaporation losses
caused by sprinkler irrigation systems, returning lost water to the
system. Although this plan may face resistance from farmers in the
region, the government should implement a comprehensive strategy to
persuade them. This strategy should focus on raising awareness of the
importance of water conservation and creating a culture of water-saving
practices. Additionally, the government should provide financial
incentives such as zero-interest loans, and tax breaks to farmers who
install greenhouse irrigation; the government should also create market
access for greenhouse-grown produce to help farmers recoup their
investment.

Furthermore, the taken measures should also consider reducing the
pressure on aquifers. Therefore, we recommend encouraging farmers to
utilize surface irrigation. This traditional irrigation method is more
sustainable than sprinkler irrigation, as it can help to conserve water
and, more importantly, play a crucial role in replenishing aquifers. By
collectively adopting these measures, the water scarcity issue in the
Eskandari watershed which requires immediate attention can be
effectively addressed and ensure sustainable water management for future
generations.

\section*{Open Research}

{\label{270558}}

The primary data related to precipitation, Discharge, and groundwater
used in this research, are available in the data archive on the Iran
Water Resources Management Company (IWRMC) website
(\url{http://www.wrm.ir/}). Statistics related to the population and
data related to the cultivated area were obtained from Iran Statistical
Yearbook 1397 (2018--2019)
(\url{https://www.amar.org.ir/english/Iran-Statistical-Yearbook/Statistical-Yearbook-2018-2019}).
All of these data are freely accessible on a registered personal page.

\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\section*{References}\sloppy
\phantomsection
\label{csl:2} (2016). The Water Research Foundation (WRF). Retrieved from \url{https://www.waterrf.org/resource/residential-end-uses-water-version-2-executive-report-0}

\phantomsection
\label{csl:5}Dylla, A. S., \& Shull, H. (1983). {Estimating Losses from a Rotating-Boom Sprinkler}. \textit{Transactions of the ASAE}, \textit{26}(1), 0123–0125. \url{https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.33887}

\phantomsection
\label{csl:4}Playán, E., Salvador, R., Faci, J. M., Zapata, N., Martínez-Cob, A., \& Sánchez, I. (2005). {Day and night wind drift and evaporation losses in sprinkler solid-sets and moving laterals}. \textit{Agricultural Water Management}, \textit{76}(3). \url{https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2005.01.015}

\phantomsection
\label{csl:1}SCI. (2019). {Iran Statistical Yearbook 1397 (2018 – 2019)}. The Statistical Centre of Iran. Retrieved from \url{https://www.amar.org.ir/english/Iran-Statistical-Yearbook/Statistical-Yearbook-2018-2019}

\phantomsection
\label{csl:7}Sarwar, A., Peters, T. R., \& Mohamed, A. (2019). {Evaluation of twelve wind drift and evaporation loss (WDEL) empirical models through field experimentation under the climatic conditions of Prosser, Washington}. In \textit{2019 Boston, Massachusetts July 7- July 10, 2019}. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. \url{https://doi.org/10.13031/aim.201901235}

\phantomsection
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