Quantifying the Impact of River Discharge on Nearshore Sea Ice in the Alaskan Arctic
Abstract
The Arctic is increasingly vulnerable to global warming, leading to shortening winter seasons, later freezes, and earlier breakups of sea ice. This project quantifies changes in sea ice seasonality from 1979 - 2023 using passive microwave data and sea ice climate indicator variables. Our results are consistent with those previously published by Bliss et al. (2019) finding statistically significant positive trends in the ice-free season length. We find the most rapid changes in the Chukchi Sea off the northwestern coast of Alaska. Based on current trends, we find that this region could become ice-free in the next 80 years. We also quantify the impact of river discharge on nearshore sea ice, finding correlation between the peak discharge and 90% sea ice concentration threshold dates for the region adjacent to the Mackenzie River delta. The same relationship does not exist near the Yukon River delta, with sea ice melting approximately 60 days before river discharge peaks. These findings will support future work analyzing the impact of ice on Arctic coastal biogeochemistry.