Significance Testing for Cross Correlation: A Critical Examination of
Correlations between ENSO and GRACE-Derived Terrestrial Water Storage
Variabilities
Abstract
The linear cross correlation to quantify statistical connections or
relationships finds wide applications in various geophysical and
geodetic fields. However, there remains a dearth of comprehensive
discourse regarding the significance testing for cross correlation,
which would serve to differentiate statistically meaningful outcomes
from those merely stemming from pure randomness. This study aims to
develop a significance testing method for cross correlation in both
white noise and red noise based on the -distribution within a rigorous
statistical framework, which enables the establishment of significance
tests for cross correlation as function of relative time shift within
specified ranges, as demonstrated by Monte Carlo experiments that we
perform. Via these results we critically examine the previously-claimed
significant correlations between ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation )
and the global terrestrial water storage variations derived from the
GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment ) satellite mission.