Abstract
Climate change is shifting the timing of organismal life-history events
such as hatching, growth, reproduction, and migration. Although
consequential food-web mismatches can emerge if predators and prey shift
at different rates, research on phenological shifts has traditionally
focused on single trophic levels. Here, we analyzed >2000
long-term, monthly time series of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish
abundance or biomass for three major U.S. estuaries (San Francisco,
Chesapeake, and Massachusetts bays). Phenological shifts occurred in
over a quarter (27%) of the combined series and shifting taxa
overwhelmingly advanced phenology. However, many
(~34%-68%) taxa did not track the changing
environment, and trends often diverged between predators and their
potential prey. Notably, in the San Francisco Bay most fishes showed a
delayed timing of peak abundance while many zooplankton peaked earlier,
illustrating the potential for climate-driven trophic mismatch. Our
results suggest that even if signatures of global climate change differ
locally, widespread phenological change has the potential to disrupt
estuarine food webs.