5 Summary
We present recurrence estimates from geologic and geodetic data for the
Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, summarized by fault section. Fourteen
fault sections divide the subduction interface into 95- to 540-km-long
portions that reflect observed or inferred trends in rupture behavior
along strike, geodetic coupling, and geologic structure. The recurrence
estimates can be used to provide constraints for seismic hazard models.
Geologic data are interpreted as reflecting the relatively rarer
(~220 - 1,000 year) participation of model fault
sections in Mw ≥ 8.5 ruptures, while geodetic data are
consistent with moment accumulation rates corresponding to much more
frequent (~50 - 250 year) recurrence of
Mw 8.0 - 8.5 ruptures along most fault sections. Our
analysis indicates that the rates of Mw ≥ 8 ruptures is
higher than previously assumed, especially west of Kodiak Island where
geologic and geodetic data have not previously been considered together.