Multi-Site Fire Danger Prediction Using a Spatially Coherent
Convolutional Neural Network Model
Abstract
Weather stations can represent local weather variability and extremes
more reliably than gridded products and are therefore better suited for
local climate impact applications like calculation of the Fire Weather
Index (FWI), a multivariate index for wildfire danger assessment.
However, the prediction at multiple sites poses the challenge of
preserving spatial consistency across locations, requiring a suitable
multi-site approach. This study evaluates the potential of Convolutional
Neural Networks (CNNs) for statistical downscaling (SD) of FWI
predictions across the Iberian Peninsula. We compare our
CNN-Multi-Gaussian (CNN-MG) model against Generalized Linear Models
(GLMs) and a benchmark single-site CNN approach. Our evaluation focuses
on predictive accuracy, distributional congruence, spatial coherence and
extreme events reproducibility using daily FWI data from 29 locations in
Spain. The CNN-MG model, which integrates the covariance structure of
the predictands, outperformed other methods in representing FWI
distributions across both single and multisite scales. Moreover, our
model provides greater physical interpretability via eXplainable
Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, while also emphasizing
simplicity and ease of training.