Extreme hydroclimatic events compromise adaptation planning in
agriculture based on long-term trends
Abstract
Climate projections suggest an increase in drought frequency and
intensity in various places over the globe, one of them being Southern
Europe, expected to become a hotspot. However, 2018 presented an anomaly
with the emergence of a rare “water seesaw” phenomenon, leading to
severe drought in Central and Northern Europe while Southern Europe
experienced high humidity. This unexpected event resulted in significant
agricultural disparities, emphasizing the influence of interannual
variability. The commentary underscores the danger of overlooking
short-term climate variability, vital for accurate adaptation planning,
especially for vulnerable regions, when focusing solely on long-term
trends. This case serves as a motivation for exploration of global
atmospheric circulation changes, emphasizing the need for nuanced
modeling approaches to grasp subtle complexities in climate predictions
and considering short-term climate variability alongside long-term
trends.