Explainable AI uncovers how neural networks learn to regionalize in
simulations of turbulent heat fluxes at FluxNet sites
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) based models have demonstrated very strong
predictive capabilities for hydrologic modeling, but are often
criticized for being black-boxes. In this paper we use a technique from
the field of explainable AI (XAI), called layerwise relevance
propagation (LRP) to “open the black box”. Specifically we train a
deep neural network on data from a set of hydroclimatically diverse
FluxNet sites to predict turbulent heat fluxes, and then use the LRP
technique to analyze what it learned. We show that the neural network
learns physically plausible relationships, including different ways of
partitioning the turbulent heat fluxes according to moisture or energy
limiting characteristics of the sites. That is, the neural network
learns different behaviors at arid and non-arid sites. We also develop
and demonstrate a novel technique that uses the output of the LRP
analysis to explore how the neural network learned to regionalize
between sites. We find that the neural network primarily learned
behaviors that differed between evergreen forested sites and all other
vegetation classes. Our analysis shows that even simple neural networks
can extract physically-plausible relationships and that by using XAI
methods we can learn new information from the ML-based methods.