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The African Regional Greenhouse Gases Budget (2010-2019)
  • +28
  • Yolandi Ernst,
  • Sally Archibald,
  • Frederic Chevallier,
  • Philippe Ciais,
  • Carlos Gonzalez Fischer,
  • Benjamin Gaubert,
  • Thomas Higginbottom,
  • Steven Higgins,
  • Shakirudeen Lawal,
  • Fabrice Lacroix,
  • Ronny Lauerwald,
  • Mauro Lourenco,
  • Carola Martens,
  • Anteneh G Mengistu,
  • Lutz Merbold,
  • Edward Mitchard,
  • Mthokozisi Shelton Moyo,
  • Hannah Nguyen,
  • Michael O'Sullivan,
  • Thais Michele Rosan,
  • Judith Andrea Rosentreter,
  • Casey M Ryan,
  • Simon Scheiter,
  • Stephen Sitch,
  • Nicola Stevens,
  • Torbern Tagesson,
  • Hanqin Tian,
  • Mengija Wang,
  • Joel Woon,
  • Bo Zheng,
  • Yong Zhou
Yolandi Ernst
Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sally Archibald
University of the Witwatersrand
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Frederic Chevallier
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE)
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Philippe Ciais
Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the Environment (LSCE)
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Carlos Gonzalez Fischer
Cornell University
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Benjamin Gaubert
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
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Thomas Higginbottom
University of Edinburgh
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Steven Higgins
University of Bayreuth
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Shakirudeen Lawal
North Carolina State University
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Fabrice Lacroix
University of Bern
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Ronny Lauerwald
Université Paris Saclay
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Mauro Lourenco
Wild Bird Trust
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Carola Martens
Goethe University
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Anteneh G Mengistu
Finnish Meteorological Institute
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Lutz Merbold
Agroscope
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Edward Mitchard
University of Edinburgh
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Mthokozisi Shelton Moyo
University of the Witwatersrand
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Hannah Nguyen
King's College
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Michael O'Sullivan
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter
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Thais Michele Rosan
University of Exeter
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Judith Andrea Rosentreter
Southern Cross University
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Casey M Ryan
University of Edinburgh
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Simon Scheiter
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
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Stephen Sitch
University of Exeter
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Nicola Stevens
Stellenbosch University
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Torbern Tagesson
University of Copenhagen
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Hanqin Tian
Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College
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Mengija Wang
ZhengZhou University
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Joel Woon
University of Liverpool
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Bo Zheng
Tsinghua University
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Yong Zhou
Utah State University
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Abstract

As part of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 (RECCAP2) project, we developed a comprehensive African Greenhouse gases (GHG) budget for the period 2010-2019 and compared it to the budget over the 1985-2009 (RECCAP1) period. We considered bottom-up process-based models, data-driven remotely sensed products, and national GHG inventories in comparison with top-down atmospheric inversions, accounting also for lateral fluxes. We incorporated emission estimates derived from novel methodologies for termites, herbivores, and fire, which are particularly important in Africa. We further constrained global woody biomass change products with high-quality regional observations. During the RECCAP2 period, Africa’s carbon sink capacity is decreasing, with net ecosystem exchange switching from a small sink of −0.61 ± 0.58 PgCyr−1 in RECCAP1 to a small source in RECCAP2 at 0.162 (-1.793/2.633) PgCyr-1. Net CO2 emissions estimated from bottom-up approaches were 1.588 (-6.461/11.439) PgCO2yr-1, net CH4 were 78.453 (36.665/59.677) TgCH4yr-1) and net N2O were 1.81 (1.716/2.239) TgN2Oyr-1. Top-down atmospheric inversions showed similar trends. LUC emissions increased, representing one of the largest contributions at 1.746 (0.841/2.651) PgCO2eq yr-1 to the African GHG budget and almost similar to emissions from fossil fuels at 1.743 (1.531/1.956) PgCO2eq yr-1, which also increased from RECCAP1. Additionally, wildfire emissions decreased, while fuelwood burning increased. For most component fluxes, uncertainty is large, highlighting the need for increased efforts to address Africa-specific data gaps. However, for RECCAP2, we improved our overall understanding of many of the important components of the African GHG budget that will assist to inform climate policy and action.
24 Oct 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
30 Oct 2023Published in ESS Open Archive