Scale-dependence of tropical oceanic deep convective systems' cloud
shield morphology to environmental conditions
Abstract
Deep convective systems are ubiquitous over the tropical oceans and are
central to the Earth radiation budget due to their upper-level cloud
shields. Possible evolution of the morphology of these cloud shields
with climate change remain poorly understood. In this study, the
sensitivity of the cloud shield to environmental conditions is therefore
investigated using a large dataset of atmopsheric profiles from
renalaysis and satellite observations. The initial environmental
conditions in stability, thermodynamics, and dynamics are explored.
Multilinear regression between morphology and environment is used in a
2D phase space linked to the life cycle of the systems, namely the time
to reach the maximum extension and the associated maximum area.
Dynamical drivers show stronger morphological control than the
thermodynamic factors. The result reveals an overwhelming role for wind
shear over a deep tropospheric layer in explaining the scale dependence
of cloud shield morphology. In particular, the variability of the shield
growth rate is very well explained by deep layer shear
(R2>0.8). The depth of the systems is also strongly related
to dynamics and secondly to water vapor loading. These results feed the
debate on the relative role of deep- vs. low-level shear in influencing
deep convection and extend previous precipitation-centric considerations
to the cloud shield of the systems. Possible underlying mechanisms are
discussed, and the need to extend previous theoretical considerations on
idealised convective geometry towards the whole spectrum of deep
convective systems populating the tropical oceans is emphasised.