Intense atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions in the Ross Sea play a vital
role in global overturning circulation by supplying saline and dense
shelf waters. Since the 1960s, freshening of the Ross Sea shelf water
has led to a decline in Antarctic Bottom Water formation. Since the
early 2010s, however, the salinity of the western Ross Sea has
rebounded. This study adopts an ocean-sea ice model to investigate the
causes of this salinity rebound. Model-based salinity budget analysis
indicates that the salinity rebound was driven by increased brine
rejection from sea ice formation, triggered by the nearly equal effects
of local anomalous winds and surface heat flux. The local divergent wind
anomalies promoted local sea ice formation by creating a thin ice area,
while a cooling heat flux anomaly decreased the surface temperature,
increasing sea ice production. This highlights the importance of
understanding local climate variability in projecting future dense shelf
water change.