Significant reduction of potential exposure to extreme marine heatwaves
by achieving carbon neutrality
Abstract
Marine heatwave (MHW), a prolonged period of anomalously warm seawater,
has a catastrophic repercussion on marine ecosystems. With global
warming, MHWs have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged.
To avoid irreversible damages from such extreme events, net-zero carbon
emissions by the 2050s, called carbon neutrality, were proposed. Here,
we evaluate the impact of carbon neutrality on MHWs in the late 21st
century using multi-model projections from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway
(SSP)1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. It is found that if the current
regional rivalry over carbon emissions continues (i.e., SSP3-7.0), the
MHWs in the late 21st century will become stronger and longer than
historical ones, especially in the western boundary current and
equatorial current regions. Approximately 68% of the global ocean will
be exposed to permanent MHWs, regionally 93% in the Indian Ocean, 76%
in the Pacific Ocean, 68% in the Atlantic Ocean, 65% in the Coastal
Ocean, and 48% in the Southern Ocean. Such MHWs can be significantly
reduced by achieving carbon neutrality (i.e., SSP1-1.9). In particular,
the spatial proportion of the ocean exposed to permanent MHWs can be
reduced to as low as 0.02 to 0.07%, depending on the regions. This
result underscores the critical importance of ongoing efforts to achieve
net-zero carbon emissions to reduce the potential ecological risks
induced by extreme MHWs.