Global marine ecosystem response to a strong AMOC weakening under low
and high future emission scenarios
Abstract
Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and
society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and
climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping
points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional
changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC
weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System
Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission
scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in
the North Atlantic to induce extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the
AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and
temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of
nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model,
EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2.
In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB),
which are larger for high trophic level organisms. The strongest net
effect is seen in the high emission scenario, but the effect of the
extra AMOC weakening on TSB is larger in the low emission scenario. On
top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by -3.78% and
-2.03% in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC
weakening. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under
increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses
on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a
food and income source.