Global Greenhouse Gases Emissions Effect on Extreme Events under an
Uncertain Future: a case study in Western Cape, South Africa
Abstract
The growing effect of CO2 and other greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions on
the extreme climate risks in the Western Cape, South Africa, calls for
the need for better climate adaptation and emissions-reduction
strategies to protect region’s long-term social-economic benefits. This
paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of changes in the future
extreme events associated with drought and heatwave under three
different greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions scenarios: Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, from moderate to
severe, respectively. A variety of diagnostic indices are used to
determine how future heatwaves and drought will response to each
different RCP climate scenario in Western Cape based on Max Planck
Institute-Earth System Model/REMO (MPI-ESM/REMO). The projected
simulation results reveal that both drought-related and heatwave-related
extreme climate indices suggest very strong relationships between the
future extreme climate risks and the GHG emissions for Western Cape,
South Africa. Anthropogenic activities and growing GHG emissions will
lead to severer extreme climate stress in terms of drought as well as
duration, frequency, and magnitude of heatwave stresses. As a result, we
believe that reducing the GHG emissions to alleviate future extreme
climate stress becomes a practical solution to protect the local’s
socio-economic system and further maintain the region’s economic
prosperity.