Carvedilol to prevent decompensation of liver cirrhosis in patients with
clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by novel
non-invasive model
Abstract
Objective: To develop a novel non-invasive model for CSPH, and
investigate whether carvedilol could reduce the risk of decompensation
in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the novel model.
Methods: International multicenter observational study with a
median follow-up time of 38 months. Three cohorts were included in study
from 6 countries. In this study, a total of 1,304 patients were
fulfilled diagnosis of liver cirrhosis. Patients were treated with
carvedilol in longitudinal carvedilol-treating cohort. The primary
outcome was the development of the first hepatic decompensation .
Results: Six studies from the meta-analysis were involved
(n=819), and LSM and platelet count (PLT) were identified as independent
risk factors of CSPH, with pooled risk ratios of 1.10 (95% confidence
interval [CI] 1.06-1.15) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99). A novel model
was established. In HVPG cohort (n=151), the areas under the receiver
operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the novel model, ANTICIPATE
model, and Baveno VII criteria for CSPH were 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.95),
0.80 (95% CI 0.73-0.87), and 0.83 (95% CI 0.77-0.89). The novel model
narrows down the grey zone to 22.5%, significantly lower than 50.3%,
using Baveno VII criteria (p<0.001). In follow-up cohort
(n=1,102), the cumulative incidences (1.7% vs 2.5% vs 15.8%) of
decompensation events were significantly different by using the novel
model cutoff values of >0, 0 to -0.68 (medium-risk), and
<-0.68 (p<0.001). In the carvedilol-treating cohort,
the patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the novel model (treating
cohort, n=51) had significantly lower rates of decompensation than those
of NSBBs untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity
score matching [PSM], n=102 after PSM, all p<0.05).
Conclusion: A novel model provides stratification for CSPH and
decompensation in patients with liver cirrhosis. Treatment with
carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of decompensation among
high-risk CSPH patients stratified by the novel model.