Is Reservoir Storage Effectively Utilized in Southeast? A Regional
Assessment to Reduce Drought Risk considering Potential Storage and
Flood Scenarios
Abstract
Most of the world’s population faces freshwater scarcity threats, and
reservoirs, built both for ensuring water supply during prolonged
droughts and reducing downstream flood risks, are critical
infrastructure for water sustainability. Historical inflow data and
water demand were used to estimate reservoir storage allocation and
operation policies when designing and building reservoirs, 50 to 100
years ago. This study assesses historical reservoir operations in 16
Southeastern reservoirs and evaluates the potential for utilizing
existing flood control storage for alternative purposes without
increasing downstream flood risk. Using a reservoir simulation model, we
evaluate the resulting storage under four initial storage conditions for
observed and synthetic seasonal maximum six-day flood pulses. For most
reservoirs, we find conservation storage is depleting and did not exceed
the flood storage capacity in their historical operation. The simulation
model resulted in most of the reservoirs’ storage levels staying within
the flood control pool for all scenarios (for observed and synthetic
floods). Additional flood risk was lowest for initial storage condition
1 (flood control pool empty) and highest with condition 2 (50% of the
flood control pool full). Flood risk increased the most for reservoirs
with small ratios of flood control to conservation pool storage. Our
study shows the potential for reallocation and utilization of flood
control storage to meet the increasing demand. As limited opportunities
for new reservoirs exist, utilizing current reservoir storage without
introducing additional downstream risk may be an effective management
strategy to mitigate flood and drought risk under climate change and
population growth.