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\begin{document}

\title{Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimates of
Local Crustal Seismic Response}



\author[1]{Himanshu Agrawal}%
\author[2]{John McCloskey}%
\affil[1]{School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh}%
\affil[2]{University of Edinburgh}%


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  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
It is estimated that 2 billion people will move to cities in the next 30
years, many of which possess high seismic risk, underscoring the
importance of reliable hazard assessments. Current ground motion models
for these assessments typically rely on an extensive catalogue of events
to derive empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which
are often unavailable in developing countries. Considering the
challenge, we choose an alternative method utilizing physics-based (PB)
ground motion simulations, and develop a simplified decomposition of
ground motion estimation by considering regional attenuation
(\(\Delta\)) and local site amplification (\(A\)),
thereby exploring how much of the observed variability can be explained
solely by wave propagation effects. We deterministically evaluate these
parameters in a virtual city named Tomorrowville, located in a 3D
layered crustal velocity model containing sedimentary basins, using
randomly oriented extended sources. Using these physics-based empirical
parameters (\(\Delta\) and~\(A\)), we evaluate the
intensities, particularly Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA), of
hypothetical future earthquakes. The results suggest that the estimation
of PGA using the deterministic decomposition exhibits a robust spatial
correlation with the PGA obtained from simulations within Tomorrowville.
This method exposes an order of magnitude spatial variability in PGA
within Tomorrowville, primarily associated with the near surface geology
and largely independent of the seismic source. In conclusion, advances
in PB simulations and improved crustal structure determination offer the
potential to overcome the limitations of earthquake data availability to
some extent, enabling prompt evaluation of ground motion intensities.%
\end{abstract}%



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