More than marine heatwaves: A new regime of heat, acidity, and low
oxygen compound extreme events in the Gulf of Alaska
Abstract
Recent marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Alaska have had devastating and
lasting impacts on species from various trophic levels. As a result of
climate change, total heat exposure in the upper ocean has become
longer, more intense, more frequent, and more likely to happen at the
same time as other environmental extremes. The combination of multiple
environmental extremes can exacerbate the response of sensitive marine
organisms. Our hindcast simulation provides the first indication that
more than 20 % of the bottom water of the Gulf of Alaska continental
shelf was exposed to quadruple heat, positive [H+], negative Ωarag,
and negative [O2] compound extreme events during the 2018-2020
marine heat wave. Natural intrusion of deep and acidified water combined
with the marine heat wave triggered the first occurrence of these events
in 2019. During the 2013-2016 marine heat wave, surface waters were
already exposed to widespread marine heat and positive [H+] compound
extreme events due to the temperature effect on the [H+]. We
introduce a new Gulf of Alaska Downwelling Index (GOADI) with short-term
predictive skill, which can serve as indicator of past and near-future
positive [H+], negative Ωarag, and negative [O2] compound
extreme events on the shelf. Our results suggest that the marine heat
waves may have not been the sole environmental stressor that led to the
observed ecosystem impacts and warrant a closer look at existing in situ
inorganic carbon and other environmental data in combination with
biological observations and model output.