Abstract
The effects of contemporary increases in riverine freshwater into the
Arctic Ocean are estimated from ocean model simulations, using two
runoff data sets. One runoff data set which is based on older
climatological data, which has no inter-annual variability after 2007
and as such does not represent the observed increases in river runoff
into the Arctic. The other data set comes from a hydrological model
developed for the Arctic drainage basin, which includes contemporary
changes in the climate. In the pan-Arctic this new data set represents
an approximately 11% increase in runoff, compared with the older
climatological data. Comparing two ocean model runs forced with the
different runoff data sets, overall changes in different freshwater
markers across the basin were found to be between 5-10%, depending on
the area investigated. The strongest increases were seen from the
Siberian rivers, which in turn caused the strongest freshening in the
Eastern Arctic.