Abstract
A connection between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11-yr
solar cycle (SC), and the short-term convective climate oscillation, the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), in boreal winter has been found in
observational data, yet is generally lacking in current global climate
models (GCMs). The extent to which a proposed mechanism for producing
this connection is simulated in a series of GCMs participating in the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is investigated. The
models are found to be often lacking complete representation of several
elements of this mechanism, with particular issues being QBOs that are
westerly-biased and weak in the lower stratosphere, weak solar
stratospheric temperature and zonal wind signals, insufficient solar or
QBO-modulation of extratropical wave activity (the Holton-Tan effect),
too weak reductions in equatorial tropopause static stability in
response to extratropical wave forcing, and MJOs that in some cases do
not respond to these reductions. Through by-passing many of these
deficiencies via data selection, it is demonstrated that effects on the
MJO that resemble those found in observations (strengthening of the MJO
following early-winter sudden stratospheric warmings and during easterly
QBO winters) can be simulated by a subset of the models. This supports
operation of the proposed mechanism, and points to needed model
improvements, although additional feedbacks may be needed to reproduce
the full modulation.