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Patterns of ocean acidification emergence in the Hawaiian Islands using dynamically downscaled projections
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  • Lucia Hosekova,
  • Tobias Friedrich,
  • Brian Stephen Powell,
  • Christopher L. Sabine
Lucia Hosekova
University of Hawaii at Manoa

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tobias Friedrich
University of Hawaii at Manoa
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Brian Stephen Powell
University of Hawaii at Manoa
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Christopher L. Sabine
University of Hawaii Manoa
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Abstract

This study presents the first dynamically downscaled projections of ocean acidification (OA) for the main Hawaiian Islands using coupled Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) models integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenario outputs from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We analyze three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0) and introduce a novelty metric to quantify departure from historical variability. Our results indicate unprecedented levels of OA within the next three decades across all scenarios, with aragonite saturation state (ΩA), pH, and substrate-to-inhibitor ratio projected to decline significantly. By 2100, under SSP3-7.0, ΩA novelty could exceed reference variability by a factor of 12. Spatial analysis reveals heterogeneous OA impacts, with windward coastlines consistently exhibiting higher novelty levels. Importantly, we find contrasting spatial patterns of OA indices due to varying sensitivities to temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon, resulting in higher ΩA novelty in northern areas and higher pH and substrate-to-inhibitor ratio novelty in southern regions.
15 Nov 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
18 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive