Patterns of ocean acidification emergence in the Hawaiian Islands using
dynamically downscaled projections
Abstract
This study presents the first dynamically downscaled projections of
ocean acidification (OA) for the main Hawaiian Islands using coupled
Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry
and Lower Trophics (COBALT) models integrated with Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenario outputs from the
Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We analyze three Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0) and introduce
a novelty metric to quantify departure from historical variability. Our
results indicate unprecedented levels of OA within the next three
decades across all scenarios, with aragonite saturation state (ΩA), pH,
and substrate-to-inhibitor ratio projected to decline significantly. By
2100, under SSP3-7.0, ΩA novelty could exceed reference variability by a
factor of 12. Spatial analysis reveals heterogeneous OA impacts, with
windward coastlines consistently exhibiting higher novelty levels.
Importantly, we find contrasting spatial patterns of OA indices due to
varying sensitivities to temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon,
resulting in higher ΩA novelty in northern areas and higher pH and
substrate-to-inhibitor ratio novelty in southern regions.