Incidence and predictors of post-surgery atrial fibrillation occurrence:
a cohort study in 53,387 patients
Abstract
INTRODUCTION. Post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF)
represents the most common arrhythmia reported in the days following
surgery. We aimed to investigate the incidence of POAF in the 28 days
after surgery and determine its predictors, with a specific focus on
inflammation markers. METHODS. We performed a retrospective
single center cohort study that included consecutive adult patients who
underwent a major surgical procedure between January 2016 to January
2020. Patients were divided into four subgroups according to the type of
surgery: (I) orthopedic, (II) non-thoracic non-abdominal, (III)
abdominal and esophageal, or (IV) lung and cardiovascular surgery.
RESULTS. Among 53,387 included patients (48.8% male, mean age
59 ± 15.9 years), POAF occurred in 570 (1.1%) with a mean latency after
surgery of 3.4±2.6 days. Ninety patients died (0.17%) after a mean of
13.7±8.4 days. The 28-day arrhythmia-free survival was lower in patients
undergoing lung and cardiovascular surgery ( p<0.001).
Patients who developed POAF had higher levels of C-Reactive Protein
(CRP) (0.70±0.03 vs. 0.40±0.01 log10 mg/dl; p<0.0001). In the
multivariable Cox regression analysis, adjusting for confounding factors
(age, gender, length of hospital stay, and group of surgery), CRP was an
independent predictor of POAF [HR per 1 mg/dL increase in log-scale =
1.81 (95% CI 1.18–2.79); p=0.007]. Moreover, independent predictors
of POAF were also age (HR/1 year increase = 1.06 (95% CI 1.04–1.08);
p<0.0001), lung and cardiovascular surgery (HR 23.62; 95% CI
5.65–98.73); p<0.0001), and abdominal and esophageal surgery
(HR 6.26; 95% CI 1.48–26.49; p 0.013). CONCLUSIONS. Lung and
cardiovascular surgery had the highest risk of POAF in the presented
cohort. CRP was an independent predictor of POAF and post-surgery
inflammation status may represent a major driver in the pathophysiology.