Unveiling the Stochasticity of Bank Erosion: A Hybrid Deterministic and
Stochastic Modeling Approach
Abstract
This paper presents a novel hybrid deterministic-stochastic river
morphodynamics numerical modeling approach that integrates a
two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model (deterministic) with a bed
morphodynamic model (deterministic) and a bank erosion model (Markovian
stochastic). The model solves the 2D Shallow Water Equations and the
standard k-epsilon turbulence model. Bedload transport is estimated
using the Meyer-Peter and Muller formula, and bed evolution is solved
using the Exner Equation. The Markovian stochastic bank erosion model
uses a new method to evaluate bank erosion risk. The approach was
applied to a meander bend cutoff event in the Maiqu River on the Tibetan
Plateau. Sixteen different bank-material critical shear stress cases
were considered, representing highly erodible banks to resistant banks.
Ten statistical realizations were performed for each case with different
bank-material erodibility to obtain ensemble-averaged results. Flow
field and bed evolution in the cutoff channel suggest that the model can
successfully simulate bank erosion processes during the cutoff channel
evolution, and bank topographic irregularities are reasonably captured.
A newly introduced calibration parameter, the ratio of mesh size to the
coupling period between the bank erosion model and the hydrodynamic &
morphodynamic model, is not as intuitive as the erosion resistance
calibration parameters used by the traditional bank erosion model. The
proposed approach necessitates estimating the size of a typical slump
failure, or 10-30% of the cutbank height, to set the size of the
computational mesh.