Abstract
In a model simulating dynamics of a system, parameters can represent
system sensitivities and unresolved processes, therefore affecting model
accuracy and uncertainty. Taking a light use efficiency (LUE) model as
an example, which is a typical approach to estimate gross primary
productivity (GPP), we propose a Simultaneous Parameter Inversion and
Extrapolation approach (SPIE) to overcome issues stemming from
plant-functional-type(PFT)-dependent parameterizations. SPIE refers to
predicting model parameters using an artificial neural network based on
collected variables, including PFT, climate types, bioclimatic
variables, vegetation features, atmospheric nitrogen and phosphorus
deposition and soil properties. The neural network was optimized to
minimize GPP errors and constrain LUE model sensitivity functions. We
compared SPIE with 11 typical parameter extrapolating methods, including
PFT- and climate-specific parameterizations, global and PFT-based
parameter optimization, site-similarity, and regression approaches. All
methods were assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency(NSE),
determination coefficient and normalized root mean squared error, and
contrasted with site-specific calibrations. Ten-fold cross-validated
results showed that SPIE had the best performance across sites, various
temporal scales and assessing metrics. None of the approaches performed
similar to site-level calibrations(NSE=0.95), but SPIE was the only
approach showing positive NSE(0.68). The Shapley value, layer-wise
relevance and partial dependence showed that vegetation features,
bioclimatic variables, soil properties and some PFTs are determining
parameters. The proposed parameter extrapolation approach overcomes
strong limitations observed in many standard parameterization methods.
We argue that expanding SPIE to other models overcomes current limits
and serves as an entry point to investigate the robustness and
generalization of different models.