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Improvements in September Arctic sea ice predictions via assimilation of summer CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness observations
  • +4
  • Yong-Fei Zhang,
  • Mitchell Bushuk,
  • Michael Winton,
  • William Hurlin,
  • William Gregory,
  • Jack Christopher Landy,
  • Liwei Jia
Yong-Fei Zhang
Princeton University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Mitchell Bushuk
GFDL/NOAA
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Michael Winton
GFDL/NOAA
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William Hurlin
NOAA/GFDL
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William Gregory
Princeton University
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Jack Christopher Landy
University of Tromsø - The Artic University of Norway
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Liwei Jia
NOAA/CPC
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Abstract

Because of a spring predictability barrier, the seasonal forecast skill of Arctic summer sea ice is limited by the availability of melt-season sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. The first year-round SIT observations, retrieved from CryoSat-2 from 2011–2020, are assimilated into the GFDL ocean–sea ice model. The model’s SIT anomaly field is brought into significantly better agreement with the observations, particularly in the Central Arctic. Although the short observational period makes forecast assessment challenging, we find that the addition of May–August SIT assimilation improves September local sea ice concentration (SIC) and extent forecasts similarly to the early addition of SIC assimilation. Although most regional forecasts are improved by SIT assimilation, the Chukchi Sea forecasts are degraded. This degradation is likely due to the introduction of negative correlations between September SIC and earlier SIT introduced by SIT assimilation, contrary to the increased correlations found in other regions.
31 Jul 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
04 Aug 2023Published in ESS Open Archive