The temperature of the deep ocean is a robust proxy for global mean
surface temperature during the Cenozoic
Abstract
Reconstructing past changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) is
one of the key contributions that palaeoclimate science can make in
addressing societally relevant questions and is required to determine
equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Previous work has suggested that
the temperature of the deep ocean (Td) can be used to determine GMST
with a simple Td-GMST scaling factor of 1 prior to the Pliocene.
However, this metric lacks a robust mechanistic basis, and indeed, such
a relationship is intuitively difficult to envisage given that polar
amplification is a ubiquitous feature of past warm climate states and
deep water overwhelmingly forms at high latitudes. Here, we interrogate
whether and crucially, why, this relationship exists using a suite of
curated data compilations generated for key deep-time climate intervals
as well as two independent sets of palaeoclimate model simulations. We
show that models and data are in full agreement that a 1:1 relationship
is a good approximation. Mechanistically, both sets of climate models
suggest that i) increasingly seasonally biased deep water formation, and
ii) a faster rate of land versus ocean surface warming are the two
processes that act to counterbalance a possible polar
amplification-derived bias on Td-derived GMST. Using this knowledge, we
interrogate the quality of the existing deep ocean temperature datasets
and provide a new Cenozoic record of GMST. Our estimates are
substantially warmer than similar previous efforts for much of the
Paleogene and are thus consistent with a substantially
higher-than-modern ECS during deep-time high CO2 climate states.