Abstract
The Central American Dry Corridor experienced five consecutive years of
drought from 2015 to 2019. Here, we find that the severity of this
drought was driven primarily by rainfall deficits in July-August. To
determine if the magnitude of this event was outside the range of
natural variability, we apply a statistical resampling method to
observations that emulates internal climate variability. Our analyses
show that droughts similar to the 2015-2019 event are possible, although
extremely rare, even without anthropogenic influences. Persistent
droughts in our ensemble are consistently linked to positive anomalies
of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet. We also examine the effects of
temperature on soil moisture during this drought using the Palmer
Drought Severity Index and show that anthropogenic warming increases the
likelihood of severe deficits. Multi-year droughts are likely to worsen
by the end of the 21st century due to the compound effects
of anthropogenic climate change.