Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a warmer climate : robust
versus uncertain changes with a large convection-permitting model
ensemble
Abstract
Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting-Regional
Climate Models on a pan-Alpine domain and of an object-oriented
dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in the
high-impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high
warming levels. We identify a robust multi-model agreement for an
increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined
with a substantial extension of the affected areas, a dominant influence
of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the
frequency, an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the
French Mediterranean.
However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of
convection-permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency
changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes
in events’ properties, including for the most intense events. Model
diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide
policy-relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.