On the potential of Bayesian neural networks for estimating
chlorophyll-a concentration from satellite data
Abstract
This work introduces the use of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) for
inferring chlorophyll-a concentration ([CHL-a]) from remotely sensed
data. BNNs are probabilistic models that associate a probability
distribution to the neural network parameters, and rely on Bayes’ rule
for training. The performance of the proposed probabilistic model is
compared to that of standard ocean colour algorithms, namely, ocean
colour 4 (OC4) and ocean color index (OCI). An extensive in situ
bio-optical dataset was used to train and validate the ocean colour
models. In contrast to established methods, the BNN allows for enhanced
modeling flexibility, where different variables that affect
phytoplankton phenology or describe the state of the ocean can be used
as additional input for enhanced performance. Our results suggest that
BNNs perform at least as well as established methods, and could achieve
20-40% lower mean squared errors when additional input variables are
included, such as the sea surface temperature and its climatological
mean alongside the coordinates of the prediction. The BNNs offer means
for uncertainty quantification by estimating the probability
distribution of [CHL-a], building confidence in the [CHL-a]
predictions through the variance of the predictions. Furthermore, the
output probability distribution can be used for risk assessment and
decision making through analyzing the quantiles and shape of the
predicted distribution.