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\begin{document}

\title{Earthquake nucleation characteristics revealed by seismicity response to
seasonal stress variations induced by gas production at Groningen.}



\author[1]{Mateo Acosta}%
\author[2]{Jean-Philippe Avouac}%
\author[3]{Jonathan Daniel Smith}%
\author[2]{Krittanon Sirorattanakul}%
\author[2]{Hojjat Kaveh}%
\author[4]{Stephen James Bourne}%
\affil[1]{Caltech}%
\affil[2]{California Institute of Technology}%
\affil[3]{University of Cambridge}%
\affil[4]{Shell Global Solutions International B.V.}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Deterministic earthquake prediction remains elusive, but time-dependent
probabilistic seismicity forecasting seems within reach thanks to the
development of physics-based models relating seismicity to stress
changes. Difficulties include constraining the earthquake nucleation
model and fault initial stress state. Here, we analyze induced
earthquakes from the Groningen gas field, where production is strongly
seasonal, and seismicity began 3 decades after production started. We
use the seismicity response to stress variations to constrain the
earthquake nucleation process and calibrate models for time-dependent
forecasting of induced earthquakes. Remarkable agreements of modelled
and observed seismicity are obtained when we consider (i) the initial
strength excess, (ii) the finite duration of earthquake nucleation, and
(iii) the seasonal variations of gas production. We propose a novel
metrics to quantify the nucleation model's ability to capture the damped
amplitude and the phase of the seismicity response to short-timescale
(seasonal) stress variations which allows further tightening the model's
parameters.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

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\textbf{Hosted file}

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