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ENSO and NAO Linkage to Strong Volcanism and Associated Post-Volcanic High-latitude Winter Warming
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  • Muhammad Mubashar Dogar,
  • Masatomo Fujiwara,
  • Ming Zhao,
  • Masamichi Ohba,
  • Yu Kosaka
Muhammad Mubashar Dogar
Global Change Impact Studies Centre

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Masatomo Fujiwara
Hokkaido University
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Ming Zhao
GFDL/NOAA
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Masamichi Ohba
Central research institute of electric power industry
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Yu Kosaka
University of Tokyo
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Abstract

High-latitude winter warming was observed following strong tropical volcanism, which has long been believed to be due to the volcanic-induced positive NAO phase. However, recent works argue that this warming is caused by ENSO variability. Moreover, controversies exist about the sensitivity of ENSO to volcanism. Therefore, to better resolve the controversies related to post-volcanic ENSO and NAO sensitivity and associated high-latitude winter warming, we conducted ENSO-preconditioned volcanic experiments using GFDL-CM2.1 coupled model. Our simulations strongly suggest that the post-eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by a post-eruption positive NAO phase and not by coexisting ENSO-preconditioned variability. Additionally, we find that the El Niño-preconditioned volcanic eruption enhances the El Niño phase; however, the neutral and La Niña-preconditioned volcanisms do not lead to ENSO–like response. These findings are helpful to better understand volcanic-induced circulation impacts and have important implications for the interpretation of model results and for post-volcanic prediction.
12 Jul 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
20 Jul 2023Published in ESS Open Archive