A new nonparametric copula framework for the joint analysis of river
temperature and low flow characteristics for aquatic habitat risk
assessment
Abstract
The joint probability analysis of river water temperature (RWT) and low
flow (LF) characteristics is essential as their combined effect can
negatively affect aquatic species, e.g., ectotherm fish. Traditional
multivariate models may not be as effective as copula-based
methodologies. This study introduces a new multivariate approach, the
nonparametric copula density framework, free from any distribution
assumption in their univariate margins and copula joint density. The
proposed framework utilized RWT and LF datasets collected at five
different river stations in Switzerland. The study evaluates a
nonparametric Gaussian kernel with six bandwidth selectors to model
marginal densities. It employs nonparametric-based Beta kernel density,
Bernstein estimator, and Transformation kernel estimator to approximate
copula density with nonparametric and parametric margins. The
performance of some parametric copula densities was also compared. The
most justifiable models were employed to estimate bivariate joint
exceedance probabilities and return periods (RPs). The Beta kernel
copula with Gaussian kernel margins outperformed other models for most
stations; Bernstein and Transformation copula with Gaussian kernel
margins were better for only one station each. The univariate RPs (RWT
or LF) are lower than the AND-joint but higher than OR joint case. As
the percentile value of LF events (serve as a conditioning variable)
increases, the bivariate joint RPs of RWT also increase. Higher values
in RWT events result in higher RPs than lower values at the fixed
percentile value of LF. All such estimated risk statistics are
beneficial to analyze their mutual risk in aquatic habitats and
freshwater ecosystems.