Uncovering the dynamics of multi-sector impacts of hydrological
extremes: a methods overview
Abstract
Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a
complex web of compound and cascading impacts due to interdependencies
between coupled natural and social systems. However, current
decision-making processes typically only consider one impact and
disaster event at a time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, and
conditional dependencies between impacts. Analyses capturing these
complex patterns across space and time are thus needed to better inform
effective adaptation planning. This perspective paper aims to bridge
this critical gap by presenting methods for assessing the dynamics of
the multi-sector compound and cascading impacts (CCI) of hydrological
extremes. We discuss existing challenges, good practices, and potential
ways forward. Rather than pursuing a single methodological approach, we
advocate for methodological pluralism. We see complementary roles for
analyses building on quantitative (e.g. data-mining, systems modeling)
and qualitative methods (e.g. mental models, qualitative storylines). We
believe the data-driven and knowledge-driven methods provided here can
serve as a useful starting point for understanding the dynamics of both
high-frequency CCI and low-likelihood but high-impact CCI. With this
perspective, we hope to foster research on CCI to improve the
development of adaptation strategies for reducing the risk of
hydrological extremes.